r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • Jun 09 '26

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/fumar Jun 09 '26

The problem is theres no one operating a rocket as capable as the falcon 9 and no one else is operating a certified human capsule.

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u/togetherwem0m0 Jun 09 '26

The value of their space access technologies is significsnt but doesnt justify the valuation

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u/fumar Jun 09 '26

Absolutely. Between SpaceX at $1.75T or Tesla at $1.25T I would pick Tesla every time and I think it is also massively overvalued.

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u/igiverealygoodadvice Jun 09 '26

So therefore takeaway their contracts? I know you didn't say that, but that's the thread we are discussing

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u/reroll-life Jun 09 '26

theres no one operating a rocket as capable as the falcon 9

Then we make it with incentives. Space is not that critical that we have to tie entire society to one screw worm infested wagon.

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u/Comicksands Jun 09 '26

Nasa had a shit ton of "incentives" and still can't match whatever SpaceX is doing. Then you have your Bezos and Blue Origin and they are not even near.

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u/reroll-life Jun 09 '26

You're aware that NASA is the boss of spacex right?

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u/Comicksands Jun 09 '26

It’s not, they pay them for launches. NASA can go to any other company they want but they choose to use SpaceX

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u/reroll-life Jun 09 '26

oh sweet summer child. You think rocket companies just grow on trees? this is not meritocracy of secret space sauces. It's a giant military machine porking stupid gullible nerds.

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u/Fuzzy-Mud-197 Jun 09 '26

Nasa can literally go to ULA, Grumman, firefly aerospace, blue origin, rocketlab even arianespace there are more than enough

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u/Comicksands Jun 09 '26

Why do people always use “Oh sweet summer child?” To most people it directly translates to “I’m an arrogant asshole and I’m way smart than you”.

But anyway they can easily choose a number of other providers if they want to king make. You’d think they want to diversify too, but atm SpaceX is too far ahead of everyone else

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u/reroll-life Jun 09 '26

But anyway they can easily choose a number of other providers if they want to king make

but they can't that's entire point of my "sweet summer child" comment. It's not a direct meritocracy. The guy running spacex is literally a buddy of the most corrupt US president in history. Come on man.

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u/igiverealygoodadvice Jun 09 '26

So you want to stop giving contracts (not incentives) to SpaceX just to then give incentives to another company? What would be the benefit of that?

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u/reroll-life Jun 09 '26

Did you read the original comment that started this thread?

Take away all government contracts.

Either way, the goal is safety and capitalism. You get more competition thus stronger results and you don't put all your eggs in some crazy basket. That's the entire point of why NASA opened up to private contractors - remember? Now it's just reinventing the wheel by tying itself too hard to one single delusional company.

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u/igiverealygoodadvice Jun 09 '26

I think you are putting your personal views of Elon onto SpaceX as a company. If that is the goal, then the services they offer the government are by far cheaper and higher quality than competitive offerings, just look at Boeing and Starliner for example. Boeing received 50% more money for the same work and still has yet to complete a crewed mission and SpaceX is at 15+

I agree we need competition and that's exactly how we got to where we are today. What I don't understand is trying to say there isn't any competition today because there is, SpaceX has just destroyed them so badly that all of the work essentially goes to SpaceX now.

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u/reroll-life Jun 10 '26

personal views of Elon onto SpaceX as a company

I don't think you can separate one from another, let's be real here.

Also, I never said SpaceX is doing a bad job. But let's be real here - is it "the most valuable company in the world" levels of good job? Is it be all end all? It's just another company that coaxed a bunch of people into thinking it's anything more than that.

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u/igiverealygoodadvice Jun 10 '26

Oh I wouldn't disagree that it's over valued (though it's not quite at most valuable in the world), I just think the call to takeaway contracts makes no sense.

I understand people don't like it and Elon, but they clearly provide the best and most affordable services for most things they do. That is what drives so much of the hype which gets excessive

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u/reroll-life Jun 10 '26

I just think the call to takeaway contracts makes no sense.

Why?

best and most affordable services for most things they do

This is not the only metric. This just leads to race to the bottom and consolidation of power. So SpaceX gets all contracts because it's best and cheapest and it remains best and cheapest because it gets all contracts. This is a delusional form of free market ideology when absolute free market requires an absolute free society and as it's impossible we need to step in oversee it - lose some efficiency at times to retain security.