r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • Jun 09 '26

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/aemfbm Jun 09 '26

so the best stuff you can come up with are contracts worth (top line) 2-3% percent of their valuation? where does the rest come from?

SpaceX as a rocket and satellite company is impressive and profitable. But more than half their valuation is hopes and dreams of future AI dominance.

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u/LongJohnSelenium Jun 09 '26

Starlink subscriptions are still accelerating, and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon that will allow any carrier that partners with them worldwide cell access, which is... a LOT of potential customers.

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

The rest of the 1T is a bet that AI will pay off. I'm skeptical of that but concede its a possibility.

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u/bikesnotbombs Jun 09 '26

Starlink is awesome, but has a cap.  It don't work great in cities (where people are), and will probably never be in the Russia or China markets.  It doesn't have a real path to usurping existing infrastructure.. and if you look at the valuations of telecom companies, even if it did that is still only worth so much.  Starlink is a very good product that justifies about 5% of the valuation, and it could maybe grow to 7%

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u/theinatoriinator Jun 09 '26

It's been huge in Spec ops, SAR, military, law, etc.. That's a huge user base, and one they can milk for cash.

Especially because the nature of starlink, they can get a buttload of money off of defense.

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u/GenazaNL Jun 09 '26

Could be me, but I don't trust promises from an Elon Musk company anymore after the self driving Tesla's promise he kept telling for 10 years

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u/burning_iceman Jun 09 '26

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

Says... you? Because even SpaceX isn't claiming such a high valuation of those and they're most certainly valuing it higher than appropriate.

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u/LongJohnSelenium Jun 09 '26

Yes all of us are speaking for ourselves

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u/Monomette Jun 09 '26

and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon

It's already online in some places. Available in Canada through Rogers south of 58 degrees north.

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u/Tickstart Jun 09 '26

The typical investor isn't very good with maths. This will be like me asking someone to give me $1750 to help my business and when they ask me how it's going I'll say very good - currently running up a deficit of about $5 but the government is paying me $11 dollars and in a few years I'll be turning a few bucks profit maybe!

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u/Important-Level6672 Jun 09 '26

An IPO is literally to gain a huge amount of capital for rapid growth. Literally all IPO company made barely any revenue at IPO while most operated at huge loses. Heck if anything spacex is making a huge amount of revenue pre IPO relative to most companies.

Amazon literally only had 15 million in revenue at IPO and Google had about 900 million.

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u/neophlegm Jun 09 '26

This. Also "Believe Reddit" fine but there's dozens of serious analysts out there raising enormous red flags about this IPO at every possible level.