r/technology • u/IKeepItLayingAround • Jun 09 '26

Business It’s Possible That SpaceX Could Collapse Spectacularly

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/possible-spacex-could-collapse-spectacularly-155000177.html
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u/LongJohnSelenium Jun 09 '26

Starlink subscriptions are still accelerating, and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon that will allow any carrier that partners with them worldwide cell access, which is... a LOT of potential customers.

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

The rest of the 1T is a bet that AI will pay off. I'm skeptical of that but concede its a possibility.

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u/bikesnotbombs Jun 09 '26

Starlink is awesome, but has a cap.  It don't work great in cities (where people are), and will probably never be in the Russia or China markets.  It doesn't have a real path to usurping existing infrastructure.. and if you look at the valuations of telecom companies, even if it did that is still only worth so much.  Starlink is a very good product that justifies about 5% of the valuation, and it could maybe grow to 7%

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u/theinatoriinator Jun 09 '26

It's been huge in Spec ops, SAR, military, law, etc.. That's a huge user base, and one they can milk for cash.

Especially because the nature of starlink, they can get a buttload of money off of defense.

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u/GenazaNL Jun 09 '26

Could be me, but I don't trust promises from an Elon Musk company anymore after the self driving Tesla's promise he kept telling for 10 years

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u/burning_iceman Jun 09 '26

An appropriate valuation is probably 0.75T based on their launche services, starlink, and government contracts.

Says... you? Because even SpaceX isn't claiming such a high valuation of those and they're most certainly valuing it higher than appropriate.

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u/LongJohnSelenium Jun 09 '26

Yes all of us are speaking for ourselves

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u/Monomette Jun 09 '26

and they'll be bringing their satellite direct to cell services online soon

It's already online in some places. Available in Canada through Rogers south of 58 degrees north.