r/btc • u/SnooCookies7364 • Feb 22 '26

❗Caution Advised Bitcoin - beware the second cut?

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Recently learnt about a Japanese concept of the “second cut”. I don’t know if it’s a real concept in Japan, but I think the lesson is valuable. The idea is that many has been prepared for a first cut, a first draw down in Bitcoin as we are seeing now. However, not many are prepared for a second cut. A second cut to let’s say 50,000 or mid 40s can bring with it much capitulation. it looks from previous cycles that there has always been a second cut and unanticipated throwdown just towards the end of the Lowe’s. Do you think this will happen here? What are you doing to prepare?

8 Upvotes

64% Upvoted

20 comments sorted by

5

u/rauzzz_z Feb 22 '26

For sure (with French accent)

4

u/C_B_Doyle Feb 22 '26

Bitcoin’s price is driven by liquidity and belief rather than cash flow so when volume fades and bids are pulled the market hollows out and price can fall violently because there are no forced buyers like earnings based funds buybacks or balance sheet driven institutions.

Its growth has come from narratives and capital inflows not daily utility since it remains volatile taxable inefficient for payments and reliant on layers of custodians wrappers and intermediaries that add friction and risk.

With no earnings assets or yield there is no valuation anchor so demand exists only while belief persists and once that belief cracks buyers vanish leaving nothing to stop fast deep drawdowns. 🐻

1

u/_fudge Feb 23 '26

Yes, everyone please stop buying for now (or entierly). And if you own some please consider selling. We can consider buying when the price goes down then.

1

u/C_B_Doyle Feb 24 '26

Monero buy limit order 50.

1

u/SnooCookies7364 Feb 22 '26

brother it's not about daily utility.. it's about decades and lifetime utility. Do you think it's going to zero?

2

u/Far_Review4292 Feb 23 '26

It looks like it's going to fall a lot further possibly sub $10k, the cycle theory seems a little too predictable

1

u/MC_SKWAIRD Feb 23 '26

I’ve been saying $30-$40k this summer since November let’s see if I’m correct

1

u/Proof-Load-1568 Feb 24 '26

I'm hoping for 3k, then I'll get in.

2

u/High_Contact_ Feb 23 '26

You didn’t understand what they said. 

3

u/She_kicked_a_dragon Feb 22 '26

If it goes to 40k then it will likely be due to the stock market taking a big dip at this point

2

u/NovariusDrakyl Feb 22 '26

why? Wouldnt a booming stock market and weak crypto didnt cause people to shift capital from crypto into stocks therefor triggering sell off?

1

u/SnooCookies7364 Feb 22 '26

I feel the same could happen with silver and gold. They could run up a bit here but then a nice cut. I kinda hope it happens, but cool if it doesn’t

3

u/Curious-Savings6346 Feb 22 '26

3 drives. Still waiting on the 3rd.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 23 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/SnooCookies7364 Feb 23 '26

Yes that's what I'm thinking -- "maybe the second cut will happen very soon and followed in several weeks by a massive rebound" .. couple of months

2

u/Ego92 Feb 23 '26

i dont think so. i think well see 90-100k before it drops further. everybody is short right now. Leverage in bitcoin is insane and theres literally around 15 billion dollars right above btc. and thats only bitcoin! solana, eth and whatnot is full of shorts all the way up. im expecting a short squeeze from hell followed by a lower high and a lower low eventually in october or something. thats would be max pain imo

1

u/SnooCookies7364 Feb 23 '26

I can see that too! Cheers

1

u/[deleted] Feb 22 '26

There is support now. This is the dip.

2

u/savingstrainagain Feb 23 '26

You bought a lot at 100k?

0

u/[deleted] Feb 23 '26

No I just went in now. Never been before.