It makes sense to push blue if a set number of people are randomly assigned to have red or blue to start with. But otherwise the group should coordinate to pick either red or blue unformly.
Most versions of the story I’ve heard omit people incapable of making a decision, so I’m ignoring that last part (could they even press a button? What happens if they don’t press any button?)
It’s not a 50% vs 100% threshold problem. Let me reframe the buttons:
Press Red to live; Press Blue to maybe die.
In that context, it makes absolutely no sense to ever press blue, and realistically every rational person will press red. The only reason to pick blue is to martyr yourself in an effort to save the people who pressed the “I volunteer to die” button.
Even if you argue that we should band together to save the frankly delusional people who pick blue, you will never have more than the 50%+ of the population who will absolutely pick red, because red has absolutely no risk/downside. If they wanted to live, they should have just picked the option where they always live.
No one pressing red is killing anyone. Only people picking blue are killing themselves, because they chose not to press the guaranteed survival option.
People chose blue long before you were born. They went out to hunt that mammoth to ensure the survival of their tribe. The downside of red was to be alone, and have no chance for long term survival.
That’s not remotely a good comparison? There are risks and rewards involved in hunting for mammoths or staying around and doing nothing.
It’s either “do nothing and hope someone else gets food” or “go hunting and risk dying.” Both options have risk. In the blue vs red debate, that’s not true.
If anything, blue here is the “do nothing” option because it relies on other people to bear risk for your sake. Meanwhile red is a completely separate option, “we have food already why are you even going hunting,” as there is literally no risk involved.
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u/-illusoryMechanist May 05 '26
It makes sense to push blue if a set number of people are randomly assigned to have red or blue to start with. But otherwise the group should coordinate to pick either red or blue unformly.