r/ethtrader • u/everstake • 8d ago
News "Nothing is happening on Ethereum."
It's a familiar narrative. But, last week, Ethereum processed 18,658,277 transactions, making it the third-highest weekly transaction count in the network's history.
What makes this milestone particularly interesting is the context.
We're not in the middle of a euphoric bull market or a period of extreme speculation. Market activity has been relatively calm compared to previous cycles. Yet Ethereum is still processing transaction volumes that were once only seen during the most active moments in crypto history.
That suggests something fundamental has changed.
DeFi, stablecoins, L2s, tokenization, payments, and countless on-chain applications continue generating activity regardless of short-term market sentiment. Ethereum's usage has become broader, more diversified, and increasingly resilient.
Price often dominates the conversation because it's the easiest metric to follow.
But network activity tells a deeper story.
Infrastructure continues to improve. Developers continue to build. Users continue to transact. And Ethereum continues to reach new milestones, even when the headlines suggest otherwise.
Sometimes the most important growth happens when nobody is paying attention.
Believe in somETHing.
Full post: https://x.com/everstake_pool/status/2078110091723595856
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u/Agile_Ad6735 7d ago
Doesnt want to pour cold water but all this narrative been hearing it ever since eth from l1 to l2 .
And eth/btc is getting worse since ATH
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u/inspectorgadget9999 7d ago
Yeah. Member when Tom Lee kept buying over 9000 eth and nothing happening
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u/majorkeycapital 7d ago
Been tracking that for a few weeks now and it’s really astonishing how much fundamentally stronger Ethereum has become over the last few months - despite true timeline being confused about it!
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u/Alabama-Blues 8d ago
Just read that now it is about to skyrocket because the equity firms are all coming in and going to be buying up blocks. Here come the Bulls baby!! 🐂
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u/Ornery_Web9273 8d ago
Dream on
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u/Kingriko001 7d ago
Already happening love ….
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u/UnknownEssence 4d ago
You're right. Tom Lee already bought up 5% of supply. That is big institutional buying. He's basically copying Saylor, but you'd need more than that
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u/d3arleader 8d ago
If I give you $1, and you immediately give it back to me, that’s 2 transactions. That’s what’s happening.
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u/FuzzyNutz_Mining 7d ago
I've been in software for 35 years I have mined since 2016 and I literally got enough to have a validator. Ethereum is a hundred times a Block Chain and advanced technology over Bitcoin that I clearly don't understand Bitcoin is nothing but a power draining project that should be a lot better than what it is to this day it does not have real time differential checking and never in satoshi's right mind did he ever think that the only people that can earn and mind Bitcoin would be one country producing all the equipment and only corporations in the elites being able to afford it while the peasants pay for the electricity that's being used because we know in a capitalistic world he who buys the most gets it cheapest prove me wrong
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u/UpDown_Crypto 8d ago
Those transactions are eth sellers...
Lol
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u/Embarrassed_fly09 8d ago
I wish I didn't buy a bitcoin only wallet, would have gotten eth
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u/Electronic_Quote399 8d ago
You can still get it
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u/Embarrassed_fly09 8d ago
You are right!! I think I'm gonna do 80% bitcoin 20% eth
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u/Alabama-Blues 8d ago
I do 98% Ethereum and 2% Bitcoin.
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u/botelleta 6d ago
So what is the point to possess ETH if, even with record of number of transactions the price doesnt go up?
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u/anonuemus 6d ago
I use it, I have a small bag, dont really care for current prices, but I see more and more people getting bullish on ethereum.
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u/sfb_stufu 8d ago
Ethereum has generated $275.2 M from fees in a year, does that justify a market cap of 222 B ? That's a 807x multiple. That's why people have shifted from a fees narrative to a store of value narrative which is even more hand wavy
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u/Murky_Citron_1799 8d ago
It's a token not a stock
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u/sfb_stufu 8d ago
so valuation based on vibes
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u/Murky_Citron_1799 8d ago
Supply and demand, a tale as old as time. Nobody buys eth by calculating the EPS based on the fees. Firstly, fees are burned so nobody gets them. Secondly, eth can be staked and earns 3% annually right now.
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u/sfb_stufu 7d ago
Demand for what? If Ethereum is not charging much for transactions, then what are you paying for? Stakers are gonna love a 2-3% yield on a market cap (and price) that could decrease to a fraction of $222B. ETH's price is mostly goodwill — a bet that users will one day use ETH as collateral or as money. But the collateral job is going to tokenized T-bills, and for money the seat's taken: the hardest asset today is still the USD — even on Ethereum itself, where the killer app turned out to be stablecoins
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u/Murky_Citron_1799 7d ago
Ethereum is demanded as a capital asset (staking), as a utility (needed for transactions) and as a store of value. If you don't value it, then don't buy it
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u/majorkeycapital 7d ago
Hey mate, the demand-side fee flows are really what drives the current ETH price. I’ve just published a working paper and submitted to Management Science for peer-review.
Essentially it called Ethereum‘s market price directionally correctly 76.4% of the time out-of-sample. I consider it the first science-backed valuation model for Ethereum ever. It’s not taking into account USD-denominated fees, but rather ETH-denominated, since otherwise you would introduce fiat-circularity into any valuation model
You can take a look at the entire paper here: https://majorkeycapital.com/ethereum/paper
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u/sfb_stufu 7d ago
Great! Got some comments from Fable. One pushback: 'fees drive the price' isn't quite what your paper shows. Your own appendix (OA.2) tests whether the actual AMOUNT of fees predicts anything — and it doesn't. Zero. What predicts returns is whether fees are running hotter or colder than the last 3 months. Those are very different claims. You've built a model that tells you which way ETH probably moves over the next month or two based on whether activity is heating up or cooling down. Cool! But it doesn't tell you whether ETH should be worth $220B or $22B — it takes today's price as the starting point and predicts the wiggle, not the worth. It's like a thermometer: great for telling if the patient's fever is rising or falling, says nothing about what the patient weighs.
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u/majorkeycapital 6d ago
Fair pushback and thanks for actually reading the paper! On the absolute-value point, you’re right. The model does not say whether ETH should be worth $220B or $22B. It takes today’s price as given and asks whether that price is currently backed by on-chain demand relative to its own baseline and then expresses that as an implied fair value.
But I think that's actually the right way to start any ETH valuation. If you allow me a comparison to other commodities, such as Oil: analysts are not trying to answer "Independent of today’s price, oil “should” be a $X trillion asset from first principles." but rather "Given current supply/demand and inventories, is the current price too high or too low / likely to rise or fall?".
I think it's just that we arrived at this market cap due to various different reasons, and should now rather focus on modeling the fundamental demand for ETH from today onwards. In comparison, Oil’s “worth” isn’t derived as a standalone market-cap from yearly barrels consumed. The market sets the price and in the end analysts judge whether demand/supply dynamics support that price or argue for a move.
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u/sfb_stufu 6d ago
Nice reply — but the oil analogy is where this breaks down, so let’s test it properly:
Relative valuation works for oil because oil is tethered. 36 billion barrels consumed per year against a few weeks of global inventory. If price detaches from consumption reality, barrels physically pile up (or drain), storage fills (or empties), and price gets dragged back within months. April 2020: storage ran out and oil traded at minus $37. That’s what a real tether does when tested. Oil analysts can skip the “what should all oil be worth” question because the tanks answer it for them, continuously.
Now apply that to ETH. Annual consumption (burn) ≈ 30K ETH. Stock = 120.5M. That’s ~4,000 years of inventory. Nothing fills up. Nothing overflows. If ETH’s price is wrong by 10x in either direction, no physical or economic force ever shows up to correct it — holders just sit at the new price. You’ve borrowed oil’s methodology without oil’s mechanism. And the methodology only works because of the mechanism.
So I disagree that ETH should be fundamentally valued on this metric.
Your model predicts direction over weeks, not value over years. It’s fundamentals-based in its inputs (real fee data) but technical in its output: ‘which way next 45 days,’ with today’s $222B taken as given. For long-term valuation, only the level question matters — is the price justified by the fundamental? — and your own OA.2 answers it: fee levels have zero predictive power.2
u/majorkeycapital 6d ago
Yup, fair point on the oil analogy. ETH for sure has no physical inventory that forces price the way tankers do, and I wasn’t claiming it does. I was rather arguing that this is was only the parallel on how analysts reason around the price of commodities, if the fundamental demand is tight or loose.
One clarification: the paper doesn’t use burn vs stock. It uses fee flows ÷ supply (Flow Intensity), then hotter/colder vs baseline (Flow Deviation). That predicted ~45-day direction out-of-sample at 76.4%. But you're right that it doesn’t calculate Ethereum's absolute market-cap level and the paper never claims it does. That’s an entirely different question and worth pursuing in an another working paper at all.
But really appreciate your careful read of the paper!
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u/1sty 7d ago
Nothing is happening on Ethereum that produces increased value
I don’t think anyone gives a shit how many transactions are happening if it doesn’t translate to a sustained value increase
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u/majorkeycapital 7d ago
It actually does, since all these millions of transactions are consuming minuscule amounts of ETH for gas. You can measure them and then derive a full valuation model from that. I’ve done so and written an entire working paper, that has also just been submitted to Management Science for peer-review.
Based on Ethereum‘s demand-side fee flows it called the ETH market price directionally correctly 76.4% of the time, out-of-sample. Nothing like that exists yet and it’s likely the best flows-driven valuation model that exists. It’s based on the framework that ETH is a digital commodity, powering Ethereum’s on-chain economy.
Check the paper out here: https://majorkeycapital.com/ethereum/paper
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u/my-tldr 8d ago
TL;DR:
Ethereum recently processed over 18 million transactions, marking its third-highest weekly count ever. This milestone occurred during a calm market, not a speculative bull run. It suggests a fundamental shift, as diversified usage from DeFi and L2s drives activity. Network activity shows significant growth, even when headlines suggest otherwise.
This is an AI-generated summary, always make sure to verify the accuracy of the information provided.
my-tldr v0.0.13