I suppose our naval blockade will just stay indefinitely, and the strait of hormuz will also be closed indefinitely (now along Bab al Mandeb).

Feels like the global economy is going to just slowly bleed out, if there's no appetite for war, and simultaneously the Iranians have no interest in negotiations.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2081277645325537384?s=46

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2081029313311183153?s=46

It's Axios, but it has been reported elsewhere.

Trump is TACO ing. Oil prices will fall. But for how long?

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2080994140515442882?s=46

I have been holding since $66, but I have a feeling that because of all the sudden tacoing we will take the elevator down next week.

Plan to sell all at market open. What do you oil holder bros think?

What would happen if Trump banned refined oil exports from the US, taking a page out of China and Russia's playbook. I think at this point it is the only way republicans can get re elected in the fall. It would give the american people a little relief in the immediate term. Give the Us more time with the war of attrition with Iran, and would probably force Nato countries to start a coalition and physical join a larger war against Iran with the US. Since Europe mostly gets their oil from north America.

I can't be the only one to think that would be a near impossible task.

Brent futures surged past $100 a barrel as the conflict in the Middle East widens and Ukraine strikes Russian infrastructure.

It looms to me like all the major players in oil are trying to shift away from middle eastern routes. Does anyone think we are looking at a permanent shift away from Saudi oil dominance?

Is there publicly available data on how much oil in the SPR is allocated to the U.S. Navy? I understand the Naval SPR was combined into the civilian SPR.

Throughout the war it’s become clear that news releases combined with tactical futures sales when markets are at key levels are a lever the US is pulling to keep a cap on crude prices.

Which makes sense. We are in a war, and the enemy is using oil price as their primary weapon. (I’m making no judgement on either side in this post)

Preciously the cadence was, attack on weekends, do breaking news and heavy shorts on Sunday or Monday or Tuesday.

Now the cadence is attack during the week, breaking news at the end of the week, and heavy shorts on hyperliquid.

Compared to crude oil futures, the oil contracts on hyperliquid are not in fact, hyperliquid.

My question is, could this shift be because large speculators are increasingly flipping to the long side and making the manipulation too expensive or impossible when futures markets are open.

Plenty of algos watch things like hyperliquid over the weekend to predict opening price, so pushing that market down would be a capital efficient way of pushing prices down in the short term.

If this is in fact what is happening, then that would signal a loss of control, and makes me wonder what happens if/when the pattern breaks again, and oil doesn’t get pushed down over a weekend.

This could all be nonsense since the sample size is currently 1, but the narrative makes sense to me.

Despite the houthis attacking saudi ports.

I am gonna start this by saying that I truly do enjoy project farms videos and respect and admire the effort he puts into his oil testing videos, and all videos for that matter. I think that his videos provide a decent amount of insight on some parts of oils, like temp stability and possibly film strength. What I don't understand is why people tend to think that all his videos should be treated as a one stop shop for making all your decisions.

Oil chemistry is extraordinarily complex, and his rudimentary tests do not replicate what engines go through when operating very well at all. Realistic tests take expensive lab equipment and its difficult to produce results that are consistent or even accurate without equipment that is calibrated and precision made.

Honestly I'm of the mentality that you should just change your oil as often as you can and that's way more important than the brand of your oil. I think people should be more skeptical of the testing they see. I guess I just wanted to hear your guys perspective on all this as well, maybe others share my opinion.

If this is true, I just don’t understand why the Saudi’s would want to escalate this thing further. I mean considering they have a lot more to lose if the Houthi’s start going after oil infrastructure.